Uncategorized – U.S. Nuclear Excess

Program

FY 2019 Appropriation

FY 2020 Request

FY 2020 Appropriation

Program Description

Program Cost

Columbia Class SSBN

$3.9 billion

$2.2 billion

Would replace the current fleet of 14 Ohio-class submarines with 12 new submarines. The first new submarine is scheduled to be purchased in 2021 and enter service in 2031. The new submarines are slated to remain in service though the 2080s. The program’s Milestone B decision occurred in January 2017. The prime contractor is General Dynamics Electric Boat.

The Navy estimates the acquisition cost of the program at $128 billion in then-year dollars. However, according to the Government Accountability Office, “it is more likely than not that the” program will exceed this cost because “the Navy has budgeted the submarine to a confidence level for the program that is lower than what experts recommend.” The CBO estimates the program will cost roughly $10 billion more in FY 2018 dollars than the Navy’s projection. Roughly $14 billion has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

B-21 “Raider”

$2.3 billion

$3 billion

Would initially replace the B-1 and B-2 bombers. The current plan is to procure at least 100 new bombers that would begin to enter service in the late-2020s and be capable of penetrating the most advanced adversary air defenses. The Air Force has refused to release the value of the EMD contract awarded to Northrop Grumman Corp. in October 2015 to develop the B-21 and purchase the first 21 aircraft citing classification concerns.

The CBO estimates the cost of the program at $97 billion in FY 2017 dollars. The Pentagon projects the cost of each bomber at between $564 million and $606 million in FY 2016 dollars assuming the purchase of 100 aircraft. The Defense Department attributes 5% of the acquisition cost of the program to the nuclear mission. Over $8 billion has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

Ground Based Strategic Deterrent

$414.4 million

$678 million

Would replace the current Minuteman III ICBM system and its supporting infrastructure. GBSD is slated for initial fielding in FY 2028. The Air Force is planning to procure 666 GBSD missiles to ensure a deployed force of 400 missiles through 2070. In August 2017 the Air Force selected Boeing Co. and Northrop Grumman Corp. to proceed with development of GBSD. The program’s Milestone B decision is slated for FY 2020.

An independent Pentagon cost estimate conducted in 2016 put GBSD’s price tag at between $85 billion and $150 billion in then-year dollars, well above the Air Force’s initial estimate of $62 billion. Pentagon officials ultimately approved the $85 billion figure as the initial official cost of the program. Nearly $900 million has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

Long-Range Standoff Weapon

$664.9 million

$712.5 million

Would develop a replacement for the AGM-86B air launched cruise missile (ALCM). The new missile would be compatible with the B-2 and B-52 bombers, as well as the planned B-21 “Raider” and be capable of penetrating the most advanced adversary air defenses. The first missile is slated to be produced in 2026. The current plan calls for about 1,000 new missiles. In August 2017 the Air Force awarded two $900 million contracts to Lockheed Martin Corp. and Raytheon Co. to proceed with development of LRSO. The program’s Milestone B decision is slated for FY 2022.

The Air Force estimates the program will cost $10.8 billion in then-year dollars to acquire. Nearly $1.3 billion has been appropriated for the program though FY 2019.

Nuclear Capability for F-35A Joint Strike Fighter

$77.4 million

$71.3 million

Would allow the Air Force to retain and forward deploy a dual-capable fighter aircraft, a role currently filled by the F-15E and F-16 in support of NATO commitments. The Air Force plans to provide Block 4A and Block 4B versions of the F-35A with the ability to carry the B61-12 by 2022.

The CBO estimated in 2013 that it would cost about $350 million to finish developing the modifications to make the F-35 nuclear-capable. This does not include the costs for implementing those modifications. Roughly $160 million has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

B61 Life Extension Program (tail kit)

$233.8 million

$108.4 million

Would provide the B61-12 (a life extension program overseen by NNSA) with a new guided tail kit that would increase the accuracy of the weapon. The Air Force is currently planning to procure over 800 tail kits. The program also supports integration of the B61-12 on existing long-range bombers and short-range fighter aircraft.

The Air Force estimates the tail kit will cost $1.6 billion in then-year dollars to develop. A 2013 Pentagon report put the total life-cycle cost for the program at $3.7 billion. About $740 million has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

Low-yield Trident II D5 SLBM

$22.6 million

$19.6 million

The Trump NPR states that “DoD and NNSA will develop a low-yield SLBM warhead to ensure a prompt response option that is able to penetrate adversary defenses.”

The Pentagon and NNSA anticipate spending a total of about $125 million to develop and produce the warhead modification.

Sea-Launched Cruise Missile

$1 million

$5 million

According to the Trump NPR, a new SLCM “will provide a needed non-strategic regional presence, an assured response capability, and an INF-Treaty compliant response to Russia’s continuing Treaty violation.” Development is estimated to take 7–10 years.

The Pentagon requested and Congress approved $1 million in FY 2019 to begin an analysis of the performance requirements and costs to pursue a new SLCM. The CBO projects a new SLCM and its associated warhead will cost $9 billion in then-year dollars from 2019 to 2028. The cost to develop the capability is uncertain given the administration has yet to decide on what approach to pursue.

NNSA Weapons Activities

$11.1 billion

$12.4 billion

Maintains and enhances the safety, security and reliability of the U.S. nuclear warhead stockpile and its supporting infrastructure.

The fiscal year 2019 iteration of NNSA’s Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan projects $390 billion in spending in then-year dollars on agency efforts related to sustaining and modernizing the nuclear weapons stockpile over the next 25 years. This is a massive increase of $70 billion, or 22 percent, over the 2018 version of the plan.

-B61 mod 12 LEP

$794 million

$792.6 million

Would refurbish the aging B61 nuclear gravity bomb by consolidating four of the five existing versions of the bomb into a single weapon known as the B61-12. The first bomb is slated to be produced in 2020. The upgraded weapon would be equipped with a new tail-kit guidance assembly (see above) and is expected to last for 20–30 years.

NNSA estimates the cost of the LEP at $7.6 billion in then-year dollars but the agency’s independent cost estimate projects the cost at $10 billion and thinks the programs will take longer to complete. Over $4.5 billion has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

-W80-4 LEP

$654.8 million

$898.6 million

Would refurbish the aging ALCM warhead for delivery on the LRSO (see above). The first refurnished warhead is scheduled for production in 2025.

NNSA estimates the cost of the program at between $7.6-$11.7 billion in then-year dollars. Roughly $1.5 billion has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

-W87-1 LEP (formerly IW-1)

N/A

$112 million

Would refurbish the aging W78 ICBM warhead for delivery on GBSD (see above). The Obama-era plan was to replace the warhead with an interoperable warhead for deployment on both ICBMs and SLBMs that would eventually replace the W78 and W88 warheads.

NNSA estimates the cost of the program will be between $9.9–$15.1 billion in then-year dollars. $53 million has been appropriated for the program through FY 2019.

-Low yield SLBM warhead (W76-2)

$65 million

$10 million

The Trump NPR states that “DoD and NNSA will develop a low-yield SLBM warhead to ensure a prompt response option that is able to penetrate adversary defenses.” NNSA has begun production of the warhead and aims to complete production by the end of FY 2019.

NNSA requested $65 million for the W76-2 in FY 2019. Congress authorized and approved this request. The Pentagon and NNSA anticipate spending a total of about $125 million to develop and produce the warhead modification.